The laws of luck

David Wei Liang Howell – Danyyil Dvirnyy
21st European Team Chess Championship; Hersonissos, October 31, 2017
8/4n3/2N2k2/p2p3p/Pp1P3P/1P3PK1/8/8 w - - 1 48

Position after 47. ... Ng6-e7

The two-time Italian Chess Champion Danyyil Dvirnyy saved today both the honour and the day of Italy’s team managing to accomplish a “mission impossible” against the three-time British Chess Champion David Wei Liang Howell. Objectively speaking, he couldn’t have done that without his opponent’s help. In the position of the diagram, although under time pressure, Howell – very unwisely, no doubt – decided to play for a win, whereas 48. Nxe7 Kxe7 49. Kf4 Kf6 would have led to a neat draw (in spite of White’s extra Pawn), ensuring England team’s victory. 48. Nxa5(?) Nf5+ 49. Kf4 Nxd4 50. Nb7 Nxb3 51. a5 Nd4 52. a6? Howell stubbornly insists in his irrational search for a win, that simply doesn’t exist – not this way, I mean. 52. ... b3 53. a7 b2 54. a8=Q Ne6+ 55. Kg3 b1=Q 56. Qh8+ Ke7 57. Kh2 Qf5. So White ended up standing worse. The rest is a colourful succession of big and small steps towards self-destruction, nearly begging (just in extremis) for the mirage of a stalemate. 58. Qc3? Qf4+ 59. Kh3 d4 60. Qa3+ Kd7 61. Na5 Qf5+ 62. Kg3 Qe5+ 63. Kg2 Qe2+ 64. Kg3 Qe1+ 65. Kh2 Qxh4+ 66. Kg1 Qe1+ 67. Kh2 Qe5+ 68. Kh1 Qb5 69. Qa2 Qf1+ 70. Kh2 Qxf3 71. Nc4 Ke7 72. Qa6 Qf4+ 73. Kh1 h4 74. Qb7+ Kf6 75. Qc8 Qe4+ 76. Kh2 d3 77. Qh8+ Ke7 78. Qc3 Qf4+ 79. Kh1 Qf3+ 80. Kh2 Qf2+ 81. Kh1 h3 82. Qa3+ Kf6 83. Qa1+ Nd4 84. Qa6+ Kg5 85. Qa5+ Kg4 86. Ne3+ Qxe3 87. Qh5+ Kxh5 0 : 1.